Q1 2026 Goal

On Track
EBITDA Target$3.3M
Current$2.52M (76%)

Gap to Goal

$780K

3 months remaining

AI-Powered EBITDA Recovery Analysis

Your Roadmap to$2.1M EBITDA Improvement

Discover actionable, data-driven recommendations to recover your margins in 12-18 months

$2.1M
Total Opportunity
75%
From Top 3 Actions
12-18 months
Implementation Time
94% Model Accuracy
36 Months Historical Data
Industry Validated

Quick Wins: Start Here

Top 3 priority actions driving 75% of total impact

Combined Annual Impact
$1.57M
% of Total Opportunity
75%
Implementation Timeline
6-9 Mo
1

Materials & Supplier Cost Reduction

Cost Reduction
Owner: Chief Procurement Officer
Deadline: Q1 2026
$840K
Annual Impact
Key Actions:
Dual-source top 20 components, negotiate 3-5% price reduction
Cost-down redesign on flagship product (simplify 2 subassemblies)
Implement commodity hedging for steel/plastics
2

OEE Recovery Program

Operational Excellence
Owner: VP Operations
Deadline: Q2 2026
$420K
Annual Impact
Key Actions:
Implement SMED on 3 lines with longest changeover times
Upgrade preventive maintenance schedule (reduce unplanned downtime)
Add real-time OEE monitoring dashboards on shop floor
3

Quality & Defect Reduction Initiative

Quality
Owner: QA Director
Deadline: Q1 2026
$315K
Annual Impact
Key Actions:
Root cause analysis on top 5 defect types
Implement statistical process control (SPC) on critical operations
Operator training program on quality checkpoints

Ready to get started? These three initiatives will deliver 75% of your total EBITDA improvement opportunity.

MedTech Solutions Inc • Medical Equipment Manufacturing

EBITDA Recovery & Improvement Plan

From 12% to 18% Margin in 24 Months

Current Situation

$20M revenue medical equipment manufacturer saw EBITDA margin fall from 15% to 12% (20% decline) due to material cost inflation, doubled scrap/rework rates, OEE deterioration, and aggressive discounting on new flagship product. Board mandate: Recover to 15% in Year 1, reach 18% in Year 2.

Root Causes of Decline

  • Gross margin erosion: Materials 30% → 33% of revenue, scrap doubled to 4%
  • OEE decline: 72% → 66% from changeover complexity and deferred maintenance
  • Pricing discipline: Promotional discounts became permanent, exception deals proliferated
  • SG&A creep: Headcount grew faster than revenue (21% → 22.5% of revenue)

Improvement Strategy

  • Year 1 (15% margin): Materials reduction, OEE recovery, quality fixes, pricing discipline
  • Year 2 (18% margin): Advanced OEE + automation, product mix optimization, operating leverage
  • Key levers: GM recovery, OEE 72% → 75%, defects 4% → 1.5%, RPE $305K → $355K
  • Financial impact: EBITDA $2.52M → $4.41M (+$1.89M, +75%)
-$0.48M

Current EBITDA

$2.52M

Down 20% from baseline

-3.0%

Current Margin

12.0%

Down from 15% baseline

+75%

Recovery Potential

$1.89M

To 18% margin (Year 2)

Year 1 EBITDA Recovery Bridge

From $2.52M current to $3.30M target (15% margin)

Current State
Improvements
Year 1 Target
Total Gain: $780K (+31%)

24-Month EBITDA Recovery Trajectory

Path from baseline through decline to Year 1 recovery (15% margin)

Baseline (Jan-Mar)
~$2.50M run rate
Decline (Apr-Dec)
Down to $2.10M
Recovery (2025)
Target: $3.30M

Year 2 Roadmap: From 15% to 18% EBITDA Margin

After stabilizing operations and recovering to 15% margin in Year 1, Year 2 focuses on excellence and leverage to push EBITDA to 18% ($4.41M).

Operational Excellence

  • OEE → 75%: Extend program to 2nd line, add partial automation (-10% labor hours/unit)
  • Defects → 1.5%: Routine root cause analysis, engineering changes, supplier corrective actions
  • Materials → 30.5%: Further cost-down work, continued supplier optimization

Revenue & Mix Optimization

  • Product Mix: Launch consumables/services, +15-20% recurring revenue per system
  • SKU Rationalization: Sunset low-margin variants, simplify portfolio
  • Operating Leverage: Grow to $24.5M revenue with 69 FTEs (RPE $355K)
Year 2 Total Impact
Additional $1.11M EBITDA improvement
$4.41M
18% margin on $24.5M revenue

Execution Discipline

  • • Strong program management across multi-workstream initiatives
  • • Cross-functional coordination: Ops, Engineering, Procurement, Sales
  • • Weekly tracking of OEE, defects, materials, pricing metrics

Change Management

  • • Operator buy-in for standardized work and SMED procedures
  • • Sales team training on value-based selling and approval discipline
  • • Engineering focus shift to roadmap and cost-down projects

Investment Readiness

  • • Capital for SMED tooling, automation ($200-400K Y1, $800K-1.2M Y2)
  • • Marketing investment in clinical evidence and value messaging
  • • Consumables/service package development and regulatory work

Scenarios & Analysis

Explore EBITDA recovery scenarios, causal relationships, and what-if analysis

Scenario Comparison

Side-by-side view of your EBITDA recovery journey

Total Opportunity
$1.41M
Current

Current State

EBITDA deteriorated to 12% due to material inflation, OEE decline, and quality issues

Annual EBITDA
$2.52M
EBITDA Margin12.0%
Confidence95%
TimelineCurrent
Feasibility
100%
Year 1

Year 1 Target

Recover to baseline 15% EBITDA margin through materials reduction, OEE recovery, and quality fixes

Annual EBITDA
$3.30M
+$0.30M (10.0%)
EBITDA Margin15.7%
Confidence82%
Timeline6-12 months
Feasibility
85%
Year 2

Year 2 Target

Advanced improvement through automation, product mix optimization, and operating leverage

Annual EBITDA
$4.41M
+$1.41M (47.0%)
EBITDA Margin21.0%
Confidence75%
Timeline18-24 months
Feasibility
75%

Key Insights from Comparison

Year 1 Recovery

Focus on Quick Wins: Materials cost reduction, OEE improvements, and quality fixes can deliver +$0.30M within 6-12 months.

Year 2 Acceleration

Build on momentum with Strategic Initiatives: Product mix optimization and automation investments push total gains to +$1.41M.

Feasibility Check

Year 1 targets have 85% feasibility based on industry benchmarks. No major capital required—mostly operational improvements.

Risk Mitigation

Start with high-confidence actions in Year 1. Monitor progress quarterly and adjust Year 2 plans based on actual results.

Recommended Implementation Path

1

Current → Year 1 (Months 1-12)

Focus on operational improvements: supplier negotiations, OEE recovery, quality control, pricing discipline

Materials -15%
OEE 66→72%
Defects 4→2%
2

Year 1 → Year 2 (Months 13-24)

Scale successful initiatives + strategic investments: product mix shift, automation, recurring revenue models

Mix Margin +2%
RPE $305K→$355K
SG&A 22.5→20%
3

Sustain & Optimize (Months 25+)

Embed improvements into standard operating procedures, continuous improvement culture, prepare for exit/growth

18% EBITDA Margin
Exit Ready

Interactive "What-If" Analysis

TEE-Computed

Adjust 7 key operational metrics in real-time to see their projected impact on EBITDA. The causal AI model calculates the financial outcome instantly based on validated elasticities.

87% confidence interval
No changes

Adjust Metrics

$840K impact
45.0%
40%Baseline: 45.0%48%
$420K impact
72.0%
65%Baseline: 72.0%78%
$350K impact
43.2%
38%Baseline: 43.2%47%
$315K impact
2.0%
1%Baseline: 2.0%4%
$280K impact
$300,000
$290KBaseline: $300K$360K
$210K impact
21.0%
19%Baseline: 21.0%23%
$210K impact
100
70Baseline: 100.0105

Projected EBITDA

$0
Monthly (current baseline: $250K)

Impact Analysis

Monthly Impact$0
Annual Impact$0
Confidence Level0%

12-Month Projection

How It Works

This interactive tool analyzes relationships between operational metrics and EBITDA outcomes. Adjust the sliders to explore different scenarios and see their immediate financial impact. Confidence levels reflect the strength of each metric's influence on EBITDA based on historical data analysis.

Action Plan

Detailed recommendations, quarterly roadmap, and key objectives & results

Prescriptive Recommendations

Seven actionable initiatives with detailed analysis, action plans, and implementation roadmap to drive $2.1M annual EBITDA improvement.

Total EBITDA Impact

$2.1M
Combined annual improvement across all initiatives

Active Initiatives

7
Strategic programs driving recovery

EBITDA Impact by Initiative

Annual EBITDA improvement in thousands of dollars

Detailed Initiative Analysis

1

Materials & Supplier Cost Reduction Program

Gross Margin - Materials

Critical Priority

Launch focused sourcing program on top 20 components by spend to reduce material costs from 33% to 31.5% of revenue.

EBITDA Impact
$315K/yr
1.5% of revenue
Timeline
6 months
High Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
2

OEE Recovery Program: Changeovers, Downtime & Performance

Manufacturing Excellence - OEE

Critical Priority

Implement comprehensive 6-month OEE improvement program on critical production lines to recover from 66% to 72% (Year 1) and push to 75% (Year 2).

EBITDA Impact
$420K/yr
2.0% of revenue
Timeline
6-12 months
High Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
3

Quality & Defect Reduction Initiative

Quality - Scrap & Rework

Critical Priority

Drive scrap/defect rate from 4% back to 2% (Year 1), then to 1.5% (Year 2) through root cause elimination, error-proofing, and operator training.

EBITDA Impact
$315K/yr
1.5% of revenue
Timeline
6-12 months
High Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
4

Pricing Discipline & Discount Control

Commercial - Pricing

High Priority

End permanent promotional discounts on flagship product and institute discount approval gates to recover average selling prices and improve gross margin.

EBITDA Impact
$210K/yr
1.0% of revenue
Timeline
3-6 months
Medium Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
5

SG&A Optimization & Spending Discipline

OpEx - SG&A

High Priority

Reduce SG&A from 22.5% to 21% of revenue through headcount discipline, low-ROI spend cuts, and productivity focus.

EBITDA Impact
$210K/yr
1.0% of revenue
Timeline
3-6 months
Medium Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
6

Product Mix Optimization & Recurring Revenue Growth

Product Strategy - Mix

High Priority

Shift product mix toward higher-margin consumables and service packages; prune low-margin SKUs to improve blended gross margin.

EBITDA Impact
$350K/yr
1.4% of revenue
Timeline
12-18 months
High Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand
7

Revenue per Employee (RPE) & Operating Leverage

Productivity - RPE

Medium Priority

Grow revenue faster than headcount to improve operating leverage. Target: $315K RPE (Year 1), $355K RPE (Year 2).

EBITDA Impact
$280K/yr
1.1% of revenue
Timeline
12-24 months
Medium Impact
Current State
Needs Attention
Click to expand

Total EBITDA Recovery Potential

$2.1M

Annual improvement from all 7 strategic initiatives

Portfolio Intelligence

Multi-entity causal benchmarking & best-practice transfer

4 Entities
HSM-Governed
14.9%
Avg EBITDA Margin
77%
Avg OEE
$4.2M
Total Upside
3
Transferable Practices

NuStep Medical

Medical Equipment

On Track
12%
EBITDA
72%
OEE
4.2%
Defect
Gap to target:6.0% margin points
Has transferable: Predictive maintenance scheduling

Acme Precision

Aerospace Components

On Track
15.5%
EBITDA
81%
OEE
2.1%
Defect
Gap to target:4.5% margin points
Has transferable: Real-time SPC monitoring

Meridian Plastics

Industrial Plastics

Needs Attention
9.8%
EBITDA
68%
OEE
5.8%
Defect
Gap to target:4.2% margin points

Vertex Automation

Industrial Automation

Top Performer
22.3%
EBITDA
88%
OEE
1.2%
Defect
Gap to target:2.7% margin points
Has transferable: Autonomous quality inspection

Best Practice Transfer Engine

Patent Claims: Multi-entity causal model governance (Claims 12-15), Cross-tenant best-practice transfer with privacy isolation (Claims 28-32)

Decision Provenance Chain

Full audit trail: Query → Causal Path → Outcome → Validation

Cryptographic Provenance
4
Total Decisions
2
Validated
1
In Progress
1
Deviated

"What if we improve OEE from 72% to 80%?"

--- • Model v3.2.1

Validated

"Impact of reducing defect rate by 2%?"

--- • Model v3.2.1

In Progress

"What caused the Q4 margin decline?"

--- • Model v3.2.1

Validated

"Increase line speed to 130 units/hr"

--- • Model v3.2.1

Deviated
Patent Claims: Decision provenance with cryptographic chain (Claims 36-40), Outcome validation and model refinement loop (Claims 46-50)

CausalLedger™ Audit Trail

HSM-Secured
TEE-Attested

Immutable record of all decisions with cryptographic provenance (Claims 36-40)

CL-2026-0103-001
87% confidence

What-If Scenario: +2% Gross Margin

Accepted recommendation

---
Model v3.2.1
HSM: HSM-SIG-A7F3...TEE: TEE-ATT-9C2E...
CL-2026-0103-002
94% confidence

AI Query: Top EBITDA drivers

Viewed analysis

---
Model v3.2.1
HSM: HSM-SIG-B8D1...TEE: TEE-ATT-7A3F...

How It Works

CausalBeacon uses advanced AI to analyze your operational and financial data, identifying which metrics causally drive EBITDA. Our platform quantifies the impact of each lever, helping you prioritize initiatives that matter most.

94%
Model Accuracy
(R² = 0.94)
36
Months of Data
Historical validation
95%
Confidence Level
±$0.8M
Cross
Validated
Industry benchmarks

Key Differentiator
Causal AI, Not Correlation

True Causality
We identify what drives EBITDA, not just what correlates with it
Counterfactual Analysis
Test "what-if" scenarios with validated elasticities
Lagged Variable Analysis
Validates timing and direction of causal effects
External Benchmarking
Compared against industry best practices

Our Approach
Proven Process

1
Data Integration
Connect your ERP, MES, and financial systems to build comprehensive historical context
2
AI Analysis
Our platform analyzes relationships between operational metrics and EBITDA outcomes
3
Prioritized Insights
Receive actionable recommendations ranked by impact potential and feasibility
4
Interactive Modeling
Model different scenarios to understand trade-offs before committing resources

Key Operational Drivers

Our platform analyzes relationships between operational metrics and EBITDA, including:

Gross Margin
OEE
Defect Rate
Revenue/Employee
SG&A Ratio
Product Mix
Specific model parameters and coefficients available during discovery call

About CausalBeacon

Our proprietary AI operating system leverages causal inference to identify which operational levers actually drive EBITDA - not just correlations. Validated with 94% accuracy against industry benchmarks.

Quick Links

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